US President Donald Trump’s recent tariffs have elicited strong reactions across the globe, with blanket tariffs of at least 10% on all countries (with some countries seeing much higher rates). It’s not immediately clear what impact these tariffs will have on the energy transition, but analysis from Bloomberg identifies four likely outcomes. With new tariffs coming in at 34%, Chinese products such as electric vehicles and batteries also face surcharges, on top of tariffs placed on solar panels coming from China. The new tariffs could lead to China increasing exports of clean tech to low and middle-income countries, continuing a trend of Chinese EVs, wind turbines, solar panels and lithium-ion batteries to these countries. Secondly, the tariffs imposed on Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia and Thailand will impact US solar imports, as America imports more panels than it produces.
One country that could benefit is India. With lower tariffs than China and Southeast Asian countries, India’s clean tech sector could have an opening to increase exports to the US. But lastly and most importantly, there are no true winners from the tariffs announcement. With an urgent need to accelerate the energy transition, the tariffs will slow down global supply chains and the development and manufacturing of clean tech.
