Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are a critical component of the Paris Agreement. These country specific climate plans are meant to set out measures that limit global warming to under 2°C with the goal of reaching 1.5°C. They also are meant to outline how nations will adapt to a changing climate and their finance, capacity and technology needs. The deadline for submitting updated NDCs to the UNFCCC Secretariat was February 10, 2025. Only 16 nations met this deadline, with country submissions being a combination of second and third NDCs. Zimbabwe, Botswana and Lesotho were the only African countries to submit their NDCs by the deadline.
While this delay concerns many climate advocates, it is not unprecedented. The UN is expected to extend the deadline to September 2025. Under the Paris Agreement, each successive NDC must reflect a country’s highest possible ambition, taking national circumstances and differences into account. More ambitious NDCs should outline emissions reduction targets and address adaptation, loss and damage, and climate finance—critical components for developing nations.
According to the Paris Agreement, countries must update their NDCs every five years. Simon Stiell, Executive Director of UN Climate Change, has called NDCs “one of the most important policy documents” in global climate governance. Stiell argues that if the goal is to ensure ambitious, high-quality plans, then a delayed submission is preferable to a rushed, inadequate one.
With NDCs expected to be resubmitted every five years, ambition is key. These climate plans must be both scalable and realistic but more importantly represent the highest possible ambition. This means that in updated NDCs countries must ensure that their targets and proposed policies and measures are more robust. This year’s round is also required to be clearer and more detailed with respect to targets for mitigation up to 2035, the idea being that these targets can be compared and assessed against other country targets, to enable future scenario planning. While fifteen countries were able to meet the February deadline many others require additional time due to logistical, financial, or political constraints.
Lebogang Mulaisi, Executive Manager for Policy and Research in South Africa’s Presidential Climate Commission (PCC), emphasises that late submissions should not be seen as a sign of weakened commitment.
“The late submission of Nationally Determined Contributions does not in any way signal a lack of ambition or a potential u-turn in commitments to climate action. There are a number of factors that affect individual country delays and these can include capacity constraints – particularly in developing countries, time needed to consult stakeholders for desired higher ambition, as well as the need to develop policies to enable an ambitious NDC. In the case of South Africa and other developed nations, international negotiations and climate finance commitments are key to unlocking an ambitious NDC,” Mulaisi said.
The Urgency for Stronger NDCs
Global warming is accelerating, and various reports, including the latest UN synthesis report, indicate that the world is far off track in limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C. The UN Emissions Gap Report warns that a “quantum leap” in ambition is necessary to meet global climate targets. Adaptation remains a crucial aspect of NDCs, particularly for developing nations. The first Global Stocktake (GST), agreed upon in 2023 at COP28 in Dubai, acknowledged that ambition was lacking in previous NDCs, as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic and the economic slowdown. It called for bigger emissions cuts, accelerated renewables deployment, and increased climate finance. It also urged countries to align their next NDCs with science-based pathways, that aim for a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030 through closing implementation gaps by policy strength, technology transfer and international cooperation. For African countries, adaptation is not just a supplementary component—it is essential for survival. Climate change disproportionately affects the Global South, and developing countries have stated they will likely peg their levels of ambition on the amount of adaptation and related climate finance that the developed world is willing to provide.
Loss and Damage: A key Consideration for African NDCs
Loss and damage have traditionally been largely absent from NDCs. However, including them could elevate their prominence in climate negotiations, particularly for African nations facing severe climate consequences. It will also shine a light on loss and damage impacts at a national level, how countries are planning to respond, and related needs.
Historically, small island developing states have led discussions on loss and damage in global climate talks, although African countries have robustly participated in loss and damage finance talks in recent years. African nations should continue this momentum and ensure that loss and damage needs become a standard component of their NDCs, for example by defining and describing loss and damage, initiatives to respond and related needs. This could inform and guide demands for international loss and damage finance and improve accountability from developed nations.
The Global Stocktake’s Role, Helpful but Lacking Clarity
Updated NDCs are meant to respond to the recommendations of the Global Stocktake. The Global Stocktake for the first time encouraged all countries to come forward with ambitious economy-wide mitigation targets in their updated NDCs. However, the stocktake lacks concrete next steps, leaving developing nations with too much ambiguity. While ambitious commitments are expected from all countries, the stocktake failed to deliver mechanisms to ensure that developed nations provide the necessary technology, finance, and capacity building to support developing countries in meeting these more ambitious targets. The weak new climate finance target agreed to at COP29 last year only exacerbated this challenge.
This gap means that African NDCs must clearly articulate their financial, capacity and technological needs, to justify demands for greater levels of climate finance during the negotiations.
Ensuring African NDCs are Ambitious and Practical
The Global Stocktake underscored the importance of tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency improvements by 2030 to accelerate the clean energy transition. On adaptation, it highlighted significant gaps in funding, planning, and implementation. It called for finance to be scaled significantly, enhanced early warning systems, and stronger resilience-building efforts, particularly for vulnerable communities.
Without clear targets and guidance on how many of these wide goals are to be achieved, however, African countries may deprioritise ambition in their NDCs in favour of more immediate national concerns, such as poverty alleviation, job creation, energy access, and economic growth. Many nations face limited fiscal space, high debt burdens, and competing development priorities, making it difficult to allocate resources toward long-term climate goals. Additionally, the lack of sufficient climate finance, technology transfer, and investment in adaptation is likely to further discourage ambitious commitments, as governments prioritise short-term stability and resilience over deeper emission cuts.
While climate finance, technical expertise, and political constraints remain major barriers, African nations must still craft NDCs in this round that:
- Clearly define their financial needs — in particular, quantifying the financial support required for adaptation and mitigation measures. Finance remains a major problem for African countries given the global political landscape. Ambition is contingent on funding, and without it being forthcoming, countries may scale back on plans because they are conditional on finance.
- Prioritise and give specifics on loss and damage—ensuring this issue remains central to global climate discussions.
- Focus on realistic, implementable strategies—avoiding overly aspirational targets without a clear roadmap for execution.
African nations can use NDCs to highlight their specific challenges and advocate for the financial and technical support they need. In doing so, they can turn this round of NDCs into a powerful tool for both domestic climate action and a tool upon which to call for international support and accountability.
